Pokémon
Chase or Buy
If one card is the reason you are spending money, buying it directly is often the smarter move. Chasing only makes sense when you are comfortable paying for the experience and the risk of missing.
Do not ask whether the card feels pullable. Ask whether you would still be happy with the result after your planned pack budget if the card never shows up.
That question forces the real tradeoff into the open: entertainment versus control.
Buying the card wins when you want a predictable cost and a predictable outcome. It is especially strong when the expected chase cost is already well above the single price.
This is the common result for expensive chase cards where variance creates most of the downside.
A short chase can still fit when you want the rip experience, would be happy with several other pulls, and have a hard stop before the single price starts looking cheap by comparison.
That is also where a hybrid plan can help: open a few packs, then switch to the single if you miss.
Next links
Use these pages to move from general advice into a real set, card, or calculator decision.