Pokemon
Working MVP
This first calculator compares the estimated cost of buying a target card directly against the expected spend of chasing it through packs. All prices and pull rates here are local MVP estimates, not official Pokemon data.
Current assumption set: Umbreon ex in Prismatic Evolutions, pack price $5.49, pull probability 0.4% per pack.
Single-card price
$420
Estimated pull odds
About 1 in 250 packs
0.4% per pack
Pack price
$5.49
Expected packs needed
250.0
Expected chase cost
$1,373
Break-even point
76.5 packs
After about this many packs, expected spend matches the card's single price.
Chance after 25 packs
9.5%
Three ways to play it
Buy the single now
$420
Lowest-variance option using the current MVP estimate.
Chase until expected hit
$1,373
Uses the expected-packs model rather than a hard pack cap.
Open 25, then buy if missed
$517
Spend $137 on packs first, with a 90% miss chance still pushing you to the single.
Best move: buy the single
Buy the single. Chasing this card is meaningfully more expensive than buying it outright.
Your expected chase cost is about 3.3x the estimated single price, the hybrid path is still about 1.2x the single, and the break-even point is only about 76.5 packs.
Formula check: expected packs = 1 / p. Expected chase cost = expected packs × pack price. Chance after N packs = 1 - (1 - p)^N.
Reality check
After 25 packs, you still have a high chance of missing this card.
Disclaimer: this tool uses example estimated prices and pull rates for planning only. It does not represent official Pokemon odds, guaranteed outcomes, or live market pricing.