Pokemon
Working MVP
This first calculator compares the estimated cost of buying a target card directly against the expected spend of chasing it through packs. All prices and pull rates here are local MVP estimates, not official Pokemon data.
Current assumption set: Eevee ex in Prismatic Evolutions, pack price $5.49, pull probability 2.8% per pack.
Single-card price
$18.00
Estimated pull odds
About 1 in 36 packs
2.8% per pack
Pack price
$5.49
Expected packs needed
35.7
Expected chase cost
$196
Break-even point
3.3 packs
After about this many packs, expected spend matches the card's single price.
Chance after 10 packs
25%
Three ways to play it
Buy the single now
$18.00
Lowest-variance option using the current MVP estimate.
Chase until expected hit
$196
Uses the expected-packs model rather than a hard pack cap.
Open 10, then buy if missed
$68.45
Spend $54.90 on packs first, with a 75% miss chance still pushing you to the single.
Best move: buy the single
Buy the single. Chasing this card is meaningfully more expensive than buying it outright.
Your expected chase cost is about 10.9x the estimated single price, the hybrid path is still about 3.8x the single, and the break-even point is only about 3.3 packs.
Formula check: expected packs = 1 / p. Expected chase cost = expected packs × pack price. Chance after N packs = 1 - (1 - p)^N.
Reality check
After 10 packs, you still have a high chance of missing this card.
Disclaimer: this tool uses example estimated prices and pull rates for planning only. It does not represent official Pokemon odds, guaranteed outcomes, or live market pricing.